An incredible double main event headlines New Japan Pro Wrestling’s 32nd consecutive January 4th Tokyo Dome card as Wrestle Kingdom 17 descends upon the most prestigious venue in all professional wrestling on 1/4/23.

On the surface, both main events present intense grudges between larger-than-life personalities, but what do the statistics and facts tell us about what’s likely to occur on January 4? We’ll find that as we share a deep dive into the data and history that the wrestlers have produced in 2022 and throughout their careers in the Tokyo Dome.

Double Main Event II: IWGP World Heavyweight Championship: Jay White [c] vs. Kazuchika Okada

For the first time in his career, Jay White will walk down the Tokyo Dome ramp holding the most sought-after title in New Japan Pro Wrestling, the IWGP World Heavyweight Championship. For just the fourth time in eleven championship matches, Kazuchika Okada enters as the challenger. The ever-present and extremely experienced Okada looks to honor the legacy of Antonio Inoki by defeating the outsider and Bullet Club leader, Jay White, in the night’s last match.

The Rainmaker will draw from a decade+ of mostly positive Tokyo Dome results, while Jay White will leverage his history against Okada as he seeks his first Tokyo Dome Main Event victory.

Recent History – 2022 Singles

• Kazuchika Okada’s 8 hours, 29 Minutes, and 13 seconds of Total Singles Match Length was the most in NJPW in 2022. Okada’s stamina surpassed the wrestler with the second-most Total Singles Match Length (Will Ospreay) by over an hour.
• Kazuchika Okada’s 18 singles victories in NJPW were the second-most in 2022.
• Jay White’s 15 singles victories in NJPW were the third-most in 2022.
• Okada thrived in high-stakes situations in 2022. Of his 22 singles matches, 20 were either tournament matches or IWGP World Heavyweight Championship matches.
• Jay White’s .938 Singles Winning Percentage in 2022 was the best in NJPW. White’s only loss occurred against Tama Tonga in the G1 Climax tournament.
• Eight of Jay White’s fifteen victories occurred in the USA, seven occurring on NJPW STRONG.
• Though not a one-on-one match, Okada and White both participated in a four-way IWGP World Heavyweight Championship at AEWxNJPW Forbidden Door, and that is included in their NJPW records. White was victorious, and Okada did not figure in the fall.
• It is worth noting that Jay White also wrestled in six singles matches outside of NJPW in 2022. He produced a 5-1 record in those matches, including victories over IMPACT and AEW wrestlers.

Recent History – Last 180 Days Singles

Recent History – Last 90 Days Singles

Recent History – 2022 Individual Overall (Includes Tag Matches)

• Kazuchika Okada’s +28 Fall Differential (Winning Falls – Losing Falls) was the third-best in NJPW this year.
• Okada’s 27 hours, 58 minutes, and 17 seconds of Overall Total Match Length was the second-most in NJPW in 2022. This was driven mainly by his 15-minute and 59-second Overall average match length, which was the highest in NJPW.
• Jay White’s 14-minute and 52-second average overall match length was the second-highest in NJPW in 2022.

Head To Head History

• Jay White famously holds a 4-1 one-on-one record over Kazuchika Okada, including one victory in the Tokyo Dome at Wrestle Kingdom 13.
• Due to their participation in the four-way-singles match at this year’s AEWxNJPW Forbidden Door, very technically, Jay White is actually 5-1 in singles matches over Kazuchika Okada.

 Tokyo Dome Statistics and Information – SINGLES

• Kazuchika Okada is 6-3 in Tokyo Dome main events, and he enters Wrestle Kingdom 17 with a 6-1 record in his last seven Tokyo Dome main events.
• With a win on January 4, Kazuchika Okada would tie Hiroshi Tanahashi for the most Tokyo Dome main event victories with seven.
• Jay White’s last Tokyo Dome appearance occurred in 2021 at Wrestle Kingdom 15. That was his only main event appearance, and he was unsuccessful.
• Kazuchika Okada’s 7 hours, 11 minutes, and 9 seconds of Total Singles Match Length in the Tokyo Dome is second-most all-time, only behind Hiroshi Tanahashi’s 8 hours, 54 minutes, and 43 seconds.
• Strategically, Jay White will look to finish the match quickly, as that has been how he’s been most successful in Tokyo Dome matches. Okada’s legendary stamina will be at play here. Okada holds a hefty statistical advantage if the match crosses the 30-minute mark.

Tokyo Dome Statistics and Information – OVERALL (Includes Tag Matches)

• All five of Jay White’s Tokyo Dome matches have been singles matches.
• Kazuchika Okada’s first three Tokyo Dome appearances occurred in tag team matches. This year will be the twelfth consecutive Wrestle Kingdom where Okada has a singles match.

Jay White Matches In Tokyo Dome

• Jay White’s 48-minute and 5-second loss at Wrestle Kingdom 15 was the longest professional wrestling match in Tokyo Dome history.

Kazuchika Okada Matches In Tokyo Dome

• Kazuchika Okada’s 15-minute and 18-second loss to Jay White stands as the shortest Tokyo Dome singles match of his career. Okada’s next-shortest Wrestle Kingdom match was twice as long (30:57 in a loss to Hiroshi Tanahashi in 2015).

 
IWGP World Heavyweight Championship History

• In its short history, the IWGP World Heavyweight Championship has been defended
  in fourteen matches and has changed hands four times for a 28.57% title change rate.

IWGP World Heavyweight Championship Defenses in Tokyo Dome

• The IWGP World Heavyweight Championship has been defended at the Tokyo Dome three times, with one title change (January 4, 2022).
• The bright lights of the Tokyo Dome negatively impact the incumbent champion. The IWGP World Heavyweight Championship’s predecessor, the IWGP Heavyweight Championship, was decided at the Tokyo Dome 44 times between 1989 and 2021. In those 44 matches, the championship changed hands 20 times for a title change rate of 45.45%, which was 16.02% higher than the title’s overall title change rate.

Double Main Event I presented by LEC: IWGP United States Heavyweight Championship: Will Ospreay [c] vs. Kenny Omega

IWGP United States Heavyweight Champion Will Ospreay and challenger Kenny Omega have interacted very briefly in the ring, but that doesn’t mean that these two aren’t incredibly familiar with each other’s work. Some see Ospreay and Omega as mirror images of each other, but what do the statistics and facts say?

Ospreay enters the 2023 Tokyo Dome event recovering from a grueling, though successful,2022 that was filled with intense singles competition. Omega comes in on the heels of a sextuplet of the most intense trios matches the world of professional wrestling has ever seen, but Omega is no stranger to stepping into the ring on his own. His singles history in New Japan Pro Wrestling speaks for itself, and when we drill the results down to each wrestler’s time in the ring in the Tokyo Dome, Ospreay and Omega are primed to go blow-for-blow in a battle for the ages at Wrestle Kingdom 17.

Recent History – 2022 Singles

• After a grueling 2021 of singles title defenses, Kenny Omega has only wrestled in one singles match in 2022, an 11-minute and 16-second victory on the December 20th episode of AEW Dark.
• Will Ospreay ended 2022 with a 15-7 singles record in NJPW, but that doesn’t tell the whole story of his 2022. Ospreay also wrestled in eleven singles matches outside of NJPW, where he compiled a 10-1 record, bringing his total 2022 singles record to 25-8.
• Twenty-three of Ospreay’s 33 singles matches in 2022 were high-stakes tournament or championship matches.

Recent History – Last 180 Days Singles

• Will Ospreay’s nine singles victories over the last six months of 2022 were the most in NJPW over that timeframe, and his twelve singles matches in the back half of the year were also the most in NJPW.

Recent History – Last 90 Days Singles

Recent History – 2022 Individual Overall (Includes Tag Matches)

• Kenny Omega has only wrestled in ten matches in 2022, ending the year with a record of 10-3. Omega was only the losing fall recipient in one of those three losses (33.33%)
• Will Ospreay only took the losing fall in his singles losses.
• Add to Will Ospreay’s 55 NJPW matches his eighteen appearances outside of NJPW, and he suddenly represents one of the most active wrestlers in 2022.

Head To Head History

• It has been over seven years since Kenny Omega and Will Ospreay wrestled in a singles match, and the venue couldn’t be much different now than it was in 2015. The American Legion Post #308 in Reseda, California, held between 400 and 500 spectators. Thousands more will be present as they wrestle in the Tokyo Dome.

Tokyo Dome Statistics and Information – SINGLES

• At 33:52, only Jay White holds an Average Losing Match Length in the Tokyo Dome longer than Kenny Omega (32:55) and Will Ospreay (31:02).
• Statistically speaking, Kenny Omega and Will Ospreay are nearly identical in their Tokyo Dome careers.
  • Omega and Ospreay both enter Wrestle Kingdom 17 with a 2-3 singles record in the Tokyo Dome.
  • Both wrestlers enter with an Average Losing Match Length that is significantly longer than their Average Winning Match Length. This is considered a sign of strength, as each wrestler is incredibly resilient in losses but capable of a victory at almost any time.

Tokyo Dome Statistics and Information – OVERALL

Will Ospreay Matches In Tokyo Dome

• Will Ospreay enters Wrestle Kingdom 17 on a three-match losing streak in singles matches in the Tokyo Dome. Ospreay’s last singles win in the Tokyo Dome occurred at the beginning of 2019, when he won the NEVER Openweight Championship at Wrestle Kingdom 13.

Kenny Omega Matches In Tokyo Dome

• Kenny Omega will wrestle at Wrestle Kingdom 17 after leaving New Japan Pro Wrestling following his loss to Hiroshi Tanahashi at Wrestle Kingdom 13 in 2019.
• Omega’s last Tokyo Dome victory occurred in January of 2018 when he successfully defended the IWGP United States Heavyweight Championship against Chris Jericho in a match with many parallels to his upcoming bout with Will Ospreay.

IWGP United States Heavyweight Championship History

• The IWGP United States Heavyweight Championship has been decided in 38 matches, and it has changed hands in 42.11% of those matches. That is the highest Title Change Rate among IWGP championships.
• Kenny Omega’s inaugural IWGP United States Heavyweight Championship lasted 210 days and included four successful title defenses. As of January 4, Will Ospreay’s current reign will sit at 206 days, including four successful title defenses.
• Between November of 2021 and June of 2022, the IWGP United States Heavyweight Championship was vacated twice and changed hands in six consecutive matches.
• Will Ospreay has successfully defended the IWGP United States Heavyweight Championship four times during this reign. Ospreay would tie Jon Moxley for the most title defenses in a single reign with a victory over Kenny Omega.
• Kenny Omega’s successful defense of the IWGP United States Heavyweight Championship against Chris Jericho at Wrestle Kingdom 12 stands as the longest IWGP United States Heavyweight Championship match of all time at 34 minutes and 36 seconds.

IWGP United States Heavyweight Championship Defenses in Tokyo Dome

• The IWGP United States Heavyweight Championship has been defended at the Tokyo Dome five times and changed hands in three matches.

Chris Samsa is a professional wrestling statistician and research assistant supporting the NJPW English Broadcast team since 2019. Follow him on social media here.